For over a year, Nintendo and video game fans alike have been speculating, predicting, and starting rumors about the Nintendo Switch’s successor. The Switch has now been out for more than 6 years, and it seems like the Switch’s life might be starting to close fairly soon. Usually Nintendo releases a new console around 5-6 years after its predecessor. Nintendo has never had a console be released without a successor for more than 6 years, outside of their handhelds. Now, the Switch is still selling well, especially with Tears of the Kingdom having just come out, as well as Pikmin 4 and Super Mario Bros. Wonder later this year. However, should we still expect a new console in 2024 or at least a new Switch, or is it too early to be looking at a successor?
Even though it has been said that Tears of the Kingdom was the Switch’s last ‘heavy-hitter’, it doesn’t seem like that is exactly the case. In the latest Nintendo Direct, Nintendo showed off Super Mario Bros. Wonder, which looks to be a huge success. There’s also Metroid Prime 4, which is probably going to be released in 2024 and possibly cross-gen released if a new system releases in 2024 as well. So it seems like the Switch still has some big games coming up. But for how long? Even though the June 2023 Direct made it seem like a Switch successor is farther away now, is it really? The biggest games in the presentation, being Super Mario RPG, Super Mario Bros. Wonder, the new Princess Peach game, Pikmin 4, and a few other smaller titles like Detective Pikachu Returns, as well as other games we know are coming like Professor Layton and the New World of Steam, are all releasing in either 2023 or 2024, with most coming this year. There were only a small handful of games announced for 2024, which seems like it could be the Switch’s last year. Professor Layton and the Princess Peach game are probably going to sell well, but what else is there?
I have a prediction that I’ve stayed with since the February 2023 Direct, which is that the Switch’s successor will be released sometime in 2024, probably in the summer at the earliest, but most likely in November 2024. If not, then definitely sometime in 2025. When it could be announced is a bit different. The Nintendo NX (the Switch’s codename) was announced in April 2016, and initially shown off in October as the Switch, then released in March 2017. When the Switch’s successor would be announced or at least acknowledged depends on what it is. I think that if the system is some entirely new hardware, it would be revealed at the end of this year and released in November 2024 at the earliest. However, if the system is a new Switch, I could see it being announced later this year for a summer release or in early 2024 for a November release.
Now it’s time for my favorite part of the discussion. If a new Nintendo system is coming, what will it be like? Would we get a new version of the Switch, like the forever rumored Switch Pro? Or, would we get an entirely new piece of hardware? Well, I say that, at this point in time, a new Switch would sell much better than a brand new console. Here’s two reasons why I think this: 1. The Nintendo Switch moniker is very popular and recognizable, and 2. Nintendo would have trouble selling either a handheld or home console after the hybrid Switch, and if Nintendo did release a new hybrid system, it would be easier to sell if it had the Switch moniker.
Now, you may be thinking, if the Wii U didn’t work, why would a new Switch? To be fair, the Wii still sold over 100 million units, so if Nintendo did release a new Switch, what would stop it from having the same fate as the Wii U? Well, let me answer that. The Wii U wasn’t unsuccessful because of its Wii relation, it was unsuccessful because the marketing was terrible (plus a few other reasons). Let’s take a look back at the Wii U’s reveal trailer from E3 2011, which advertises “the new controller” and not the console itself. Just the GamePad. Plus, not only did Nintendo make it seem like the GamePad was a new controller for the Wii, but they also advertised the controller while showing other people with the Wii Remotes, Balance Board, and even Wii Sports being played. So, it was no surprise that many people were, and some still are, confused about the system, thinking it was just an accessory for the Wii instead of a brand new piece of hardware. Nintendo didn’t clearly explain that the Wii U was a successor to the Wii that used the new controller as well as the Wii Remotes and other Wii accessories as well. And guess what — Nintendo knows that.
So, it seems like if Nintendo did a much, much better job marketing a brand new Switch, it would probably sell very well. Plus, Nintendo already has close relationships with third-party partners, which is why many of the big third-party games have been releasing on the Switch over the years as well as on PlayStation and Xbox, which the Wii U definitely can’t say. So, I do think we could get a new Nintendo Switch system released in 2024.
What do you think? Do you think we’ll be getting a new Nintendo console in 2024? Let me know in the comments.
Ryan’s Fortress Twitter: @RyansFortress